[Paper] COGENT: Continuous Graph Emulators with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Long-Term Physical Forecasting

Source: arXiv - 2606.11162v1

Overview

In this work, we present COGENT, a continuous graph emulator with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for long-term physical forecasting on irregular geospatial meshes. COGENT encodes a finite history of system states and associated forcing fields and external forcings with a graph-based history encoder, producing node-wise context vectors that capture both local spatial interactions and temporal evolution. These context vectors initialize and condition a latent Neural Ordinary Differential Equation whose dynamics are driven by interpolated future forcings and explicit relative rollout time. By modeling the forecast trajectory as a continuous latent dynamical system, COGENT can generate predictions at arbitrary future times rather than being restricted to a fixed temporal discretization. A residual decoder maps the resulting latent trajectories back to future physical states, enabling direct multi-step forecasting without repeatedly feeding predicted states back into the model. This formulation combines graph-based spatial representation, history-conditioned latent dynamics, and continuous-time rollout in a unified framework for mesh-based physical simulation emulation. In order to stabilize training with long-horizon supervision, we also propose effective rollout-horizon sampling and a progressive rollout-horizon scheduling strategy. We evaluate COGENT on transient ice-sheet simulations generated by the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model, demonstrating improved long-range stability over autoregressive graph baselines. These results suggest that continuous graph Neural ODEs provide a promising methodology for scalable physical forecasting on irregular geospatial meshes, particularly in applications that require stable long-horizon predictions and the ability to query system states at arbitrary times.

Key Contributions

This paper presents research in the following areas:

• cs.LG

Methodology

Please refer to the full paper for detailed methodology.

Practical Implications

This research contributes to the advancement of cs.LG.

Authors

• Zesheng Liu
• Maryam Rahnemoonfar

Paper Information

• arXiv ID: 2606.11162v1
• Categories: cs.LG
• Published: June 9, 2026
• PDF: Download PDF