AI memory crunch forces DRAM market into 'hourly pricing' model, report claims — small and medium-sized businesses fighting for survival

Source: Tom’s Hardware

Memory prices have begun shifting on an hourly basis as the AI‑driven shortage intensifies, according to a DigiTimes report published today. Semiconductor industry insiders warn that smaller firms unable to place immediate orders with upfront payment risk sharply higher quotes within minutes. The market is now split between roughly 100 top‑tier buyers with the leverage to secure supply and more than 190,000 small and mid‑size enterprises fighting over what remains.

Market dynamics

Cloud service providers, leading automakers, and smartphone giants Apple and Samsung hold enough financial clout to resist price hikes and maintain priority allocation from memory manufacturers. Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron cannot afford to jeopardize those relationships, so these large customers are served first and increasingly required to prepay or use cash transactions before confirming orders—terms that smaller firms with little bargaining power will struggle with.

According to DigiTimes, these companies began struggling to absorb soaring memory costs in the second half of 2025. As prices continued climbing into 2026, some have started revising demand forecasts downward in what amounts to a “cut losses to survive” strategy. That approach is expected to spread as high prices persist, directly reducing overall market demand for memory.

Price forecasts and market outlook

• TrendForce revised its Q1 2026 DRAM contract price forecast upward to a 90‑95 % quarter‑over‑quarter increase, with NAND flash up 55‑60 % over the same period.
• A separate DigiTimes report indicates that DRAM prices could surge a further 70 % in Q2 2026.
• Research firm IDC warns the shortage could persist well into 2027.

HP disclosed last month that DRAM now accounts for 35 % of its PC build cost (source), up from between 15 % and 18 % a quarter earlier. Meanwhile, Gartner projects PC shipments will drop more than 10 % in 2026 (source), and smartphone shipments will fall roughly 8 %, both driven by memory costs. IDC expects white‑box and lower‑tier vendors, including DIY system builders, to bear the heaviest burden.

Implications for SMEs

If enough small and medium‑sized enterprises exit the market because they can’t afford the premiums, the resulting pull‑back in demand could turn tight capacity into oversupply. DigiTimes cautions that this could expose the shortage as “illusory,” potentially reshaping the DRAM market dynamics.