US consumers, business pay 90% of tariff costs, says Federal Reserve

Source: Ars Technica

Findings

US businesses and consumers paid nearly 90 % of the cost of Donald Trump’s tariffs in the first 11 months of 2025, according to research from the New York Federal Reserve. The study shows that the bulk of the tariff incidence fell on American firms and consumers, although exporters began shouldering a larger share as the year progressed.

“Our results show that the bulk of the tariff incidence continues to fall on US firms and consumers,” the authors wrote in a blog post on Thursday.
“[They] continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025.”

Background

The Trump administration has maintained that the sweeping tariffs imposed on trading partners during the president’s second term would be paid for by companies seeking to export goods into the United States.

“BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, LARGELY FROM COUNTRIES THAT HAVE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE UNITED STATES FOR MANY YEARS, LAUGHING ALL THE WAY, WILL START FLOWING INTO THE USA,” Trump posted on Truth Social in August 2025, shortly before his so‑called “reciprocal tariffs” took effect.

Administration Response

Other officials, such as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have acknowledged that US retailers—including Walmart—have been impacted by the decision to raise levies to levels not seen since the early decades of the 20th century.