Thousands of CEOs Just Admitted AI Had No Impact On Employment Or Productivity

Source: Slashdot

Background: Solow’s Productivity Paradox

In 1987, economist and Nobel laureate Robert Solow observed a slowdown in productivity despite the rapid advancement of transistors, microprocessors, integrated circuits, and memory chips. After a period of 2.9 % annual growth from 1948 to 1973, productivity fell to 1.1 % post‑1973. Solow noted that new computers sometimes generated excessive information, producing detailed reports that clogged workflows. He famously wrote, “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics,” highlighting what became known as Solow’s productivity paradox.

Recent AI Adoption Data

New data on C‑suite executives’ use of AI suggests a similar pattern may be emerging. Although 374 S&P 500 companies mentioned AI in earnings calls—most describing the technology’s implementation as entirely positive—broader productivity gains have not materialized. The analysis, reported by the Financial Times, covers the period from September 2024 to 2025.

Financial Times analysis (Sept 2024‑2025)

NBER Study Findings

A study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research examined responses from 6,000 CEOs, CFOs, and other executives across the U.S., U.K., Germany, and Australia. Key findings include:

• The vast majority see little impact from AI on their operations.
• About two‑thirds of executives reported using AI, but the average usage was only 1.5 hours per week.
• 25 % of respondents reported no AI use in the workplace.
• Nearly 90 % of firms said AI has had no impact on employment or productivity over the last three years.

Despite these modest current effects, executives remain optimistic about future gains:

• Forecasted productivity increase: 1.4 % over the next three years.
• Expected output growth: 0.8 % over the same period.
• Anticipated employment change: ‑0.7 % (firm‑level) versus a +0.5 % increase reported by individual employees.

The study can be accessed here: NBER Working Paper w34836

For additional context, see the Fortune article covering the CEO study: Fortune – AI Productivity Paradox