Polymarket saw $529M traded on bets tied to bombing of Iran

Source: TechCrunch

In Brief

Posted: 11:05 AM PST · March 1, 2026

Image Credits: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg / Getty Images

Prediction‑market users have made — and profited from — large bets tied to a potential U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran.

On Polymarket, $529 million was traded on contracts linked to the timing of the attack, according to Bloomberg. An analysis by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA found that six newly created accounts each made a profit of roughly $1 million by correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28. This pattern could indicate insider trading.

Insider‑trading concerns

Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman warned that the circulation of information “involving war or conflict,” combined with Polymarket’s anonymity, “can create incentives for informed participants to act early.”

Additional market activity

In January, analytics firm Polysights noted an apparent spike in bets on the likelihood that Iran’s now‑deceased Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would no longer hold that role by the end of March. See the original note here.

Response from Kalshi

Addressing concerns that such bets might place a financial incentive on assassination, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated:

“We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death.”

He added that Kalshi would reimburse all fees from these bets. Full statement: Twitter.