Insider Betting on Polymarket

Published: 3 days ago (May 8, 2026 at 01:49 PM EDT)

1 min read

Source: Schneier on Security

Insider Trading on Polymarket

Insider trading is rife on Polymarket (see the Ars Technica article).
Analysis by the Anti‑Corruption Data Collective, a non‑profit research and advocacy group, found:
- Long‑shot bets (wagers of $2,500 + at odds of 35 % or less) had an average win rate of ≈ 52 % in markets focused on military and defense actions.
- The win rate was 25 % across all politics‑focused markets.
- Overall win rate for all markets on the platform was 14 %.

Implications

It is absolutely insane that this is legal. Insider betting already distorts sports; when it warps politics and military actions, the impact is orders of magnitude worse.

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