DRAM Shortage Will Cause 'Seismic Shift' in Smartphone Market, But Apple Will Be Less Affected

Source: MacRumors

Overview

Global memory scarcity is projected to cause a 13 % drop in smartphone sales in 2026, according to IDC (via Bloomberg). The shortage stems from AI companies purchasing large quantities of high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) for data‑center servers, prompting manufacturers to prioritize HBM over the DRAM used in consumer devices.

IDC warns that the global memory supply will remain strained through next year, putting smartphone makers in a difficult position. Prices have risen sharply because the available memory cannot meet production needs, creating what IDC describes as a “smartphone market crisis like no other.”

Impact on the Smartphone Market

• Shipment forecast: Smartphone shipments are expected to fall to 1.1 billion units in 2026, down from 1.26 billion in 2025.

• Industry perspective:

  “The tariffs and pandemic crisis seem a joke compared to this,” said IDC Senior Research Director Nabila Popal. “The smartphone market will witness a seismic shift by the time this crisis is over — in size, average selling prices and competitive landscape. We don’t expect the situation to ease up until mid‑2027, at least.”

• Price pressure: Cheap Android smartphones will feel the brunt of rising DRAM costs, as manufacturers of low‑margin devices have less flexibility to absorb higher component prices.

Impact on Apple

Apple is better positioned to weather the shortage because it focuses on premium devices with higher profit margins, allowing it to secure DRAM supply more readily. However, the company is not completely insulated:

• A recent report indicates Apple is paying Samsung twice as much for the LPDDR5X memory chips needed for the upcoming iPhone 17 models.
• Tim Cook noted that memory price increases had a “minimal impact” on Apple’s gross margin during the 2025 holiday quarter, but the company anticipates “a bit more of an impact” in the first calendar quarter of 2026.

Sources

• IDC analysis (reported via Bloomberg)
• Original article published on MacRumors.com

Tag: IDC