The RAM shortage is causing a smartphone ‘crisis like no other,’ market could shrink 13%
Source: 9to5Google
We’re only about four months into an ongoing memory crisis across the globe, but we’re already seeing massive consequences spawning from this AI‑driven demand. As expected, those same consequences are coming for the smartphone market, with one firm expecting 160 million fewer sales compared to 2025.
Today’s report comes from the IDC (via Bloomberg), which has downgraded its mobile‑shipment estimates for 2026 year‑over‑year by 13 percent. That would mark the first year‑over‑year decline since 2023 and would rank alongside the pandemic era as one of the worst dips in smartphone sales in the past 20 years. This follows two consecutive years of global growth that were largely seen as a rebound from earlier in the decade, and, if IDC’s outlook holds, the memory crisis could prove significantly worse for the market than COVID.
IDC Senior Research Director Nabila Popal told Bloomberg that the lack of available RAM makes “the tariffs and pandemic crisis seem like a joke,” and warned that this crisis will cause a “seismic shift” in the market. The firm doesn’t expect component availability or pricing to improve prior to the middle of 2027 (source), using phrasing like “stabilize” rather than “return to normal.” Given recent statements from memory and storage manufacturers, the shortage could extend into 2028.
The IDC report also reiterates what other analysts have noted: flagships and other premium devices won’t feel the impact as strongly as cheaper devices, where a lack of headroom for more expensive components will either push those costs onto consumers or dry up availability altogether. “The days of cheap smartphones are gone,” Popal told Bloomberg, suggesting that the sub‑$100 category of devices is potentially set to go extinct.
If this week’s Galaxy S26 announcement is any indication, higher prices are already set to hit consumers. The Galaxy S26 and S26+ both rose by $100 compared to their nearly‑identical predecessors, despite Samsung having reportedly scrapped more impressive overhauls to better compete with the $800 iPhone 17. Outside smartphones, building a computer has become virtually impossible, products like the Steam Deck are largely sold out, and console makers such as Sony are reportedly delaying plans for future hardware. Let’s hope the AI revolution is worth it.