Where's The Evidence That AI Increases Productivity?

Source: Slashdot

Macro Evidence of AI‑Driven Productivity Gains

Erik Brynjolfsson, an IT productivity researcher, wrote in the Financial Times that he has finally found evidence that AI is impacting the U.S. economy. In the same week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 403,000‑person decline in payroll growth for 2025, while real GDP “remained robust, including a 3.7 % growth rate in the fourth quarter.”

This decoupling—maintaining high output with significantly lower labor input—is the hallmark of productivity growth. My updated analysis estimates a U.S. productivity increase of roughly 2.7 % for 2025, nearly double the sluggish 1.4 % annual average that characterized the previous decade. The 2025 data suggest we are moving from an investment phase into a “harvest” phase, where earlier AI‑related investments begin to translate into measurable output.

Micro‑Level Evidence

Employment Effects in AI‑Exposed Sectors

In our 2023 study on the employment effects of AI, co‑authors Bharat Chandar, Ruyu Chen, and I observed a cooling in entry‑level hiring within AI‑exposed sectors:

• Recruitment for junior roles declined by roughly 16 %.
• Workers who used AI to augment their skills saw growing employment.

These patterns indicate that companies are beginning to employ AI for codified, entry‑level tasks.

Contrasting Viewpoints

Will Raderman, employment policy analyst at the Niskanen Center, told Barron’s that “AI isn’t really stealing jobs yet.” He argues there is “no clear link yet between higher AI use and worse outcomes for young workers.”

• Recent graduate unemployment rates have been drifting upward since the 2010s—well before generative AI models entered the market. Paradoxically, occupations with moderate to high AI exposure have fared better in recent years. Data show employment growth in roles typically filled by college‑educated workers in computer systems, accounting and auditing, and market research. AI‑intensive sectors such as finance and insurance have also seen rising employment of new graduates.

• Since the release of ChatGPT, sectors where >10 % of firms report using AI and those where “Data on employment, productivity and inflation are still not showing signs of the new technology. Profit margins and earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies outside of the ‘Magnificent 7’ also lack evidence of AI at work… After three years with ChatGPT and still no signs of AI in the incoming data, it looks like AI will likely be labor‑enhancing in some sectors rather than labor‑replacing in all sectors.”

Original Sources

• Financial Times article by Erik Brynjolfsson
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025 payroll data
• Study on AI employment effects (2023) by Chandar, Chen, & Brynjolfsson
• Barron’s interview with Will Raderman, Niskanen Center
• Fortune interview with Torsten Slok, Apollo Economics