WD and Seagate confirm: Hard drives sold out for 2026
Source: Hacker News
What the CEOs Say
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Western Digital – CEO Tiang Yew Tan
“We’re pretty much sold out for calendar year 2026. We have firm purchase orders with our top seven customers through calendar year 2026. We also have in place robust commercial agreements with three of our top five customers, two through calendar year 2027 and one through calendar year 2028.”
Source: Western Digital Q2 2026 earnings call transcript -
Seagate – CEO William Mosley
“Our nearline capacity is fully allocated through calendar year 2026, and we expect to begin accepting orders for the first half of calendar year 2027 in the coming months. Further out, demand visibility is strengthening based on the long‑term agreements in place with major cloud customers through calendar 2027. Additionally, multiple cloud customers are discussing their demand‑growth projections for calendar 2028, underscoring that supply assurance remains their highest priority.”
Source: Seagate Q2 2026 earnings call transcript
Note: “Nearline” refers to Seagate’s server‑oriented HDD portfolio. According to the FY 2026 Q2 business report, nearline accounted for 87 % of Seagate’s hard‑drive sales, up from 83 % a year earlier.
No Production Expansion—for Now
- Seagate is not adding capacity; growth will come from higher‑capacity drives rather than more units.
- CFO Gianluca Romano added:
“If in a quarter we can produce a little bit more, of course we will sell those exabytes in the open market at a good profitability. But I would say the vast, vast majority of the volume is already allocated.”
Toshiba, delisted in 2023, provides only limited public financial data and no forward outlook.
Market Impact
Revenue Highlights
| Company | Q4 2025 Revenue | YoY Change | Operating Profit | YoY Change | Gross Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Digital | US$ 3 bn | +25 % | US$ 908 m | +62 % | 46.1 % (vs. 38.4 %) |
All three HDD manufacturers have reported rising sales and profits.
HDD & SSD Prices Are Rising
- German retail: HDD prices up 20‑50 % vs. mid‑2025.
- SSDs: Shortage of data‑center HDDs pushes hyperscalers toward high‑capacity SSDs, driving retail SSD price hikes.
- 2 TB SSDs (e.g., Samsung) ≈ +50 % since summer 2025.
- Smaller SSD brands without in‑house NAND (Kingston, Lexar, Patriot) see 2‑3× price increases.
Western Digital SSDs are disappearing from the market; future models will be sold under SanDisk branding after the 2025 split.
Source: Heise SSD news
Context
The statements from WD and Seagate confirm the speculation from September 2025 that the hard‑drive market would be “empty” for 2026, driven by massive demand from hyperscalers (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure, Meta, OpenAI) for AI‑training data storage.
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