Time Is Different

Source: Hacker News

Technologies Mentioned

• 3D TV
• AMP
• Augmented Reality
• Beanie Babies
• Blockchain
• Cartoon Avatars
• Curved TVs
• Frogans
• Hoverboards
• iBeacons
• Jetpacks
• Metaverse
• NFTs
• Physical Web
• Quantum Computing
• Quibi (no longer active)
• Small and Safe Nuclear Reactors
• Smart Glasses
• Stadia
• WiMAX

The “This Time Is Different” Fallacy

The problem is, the same dudes (and it was nearly always dudes) who were pumped for all of that bollocks now won’t stop wanging on about Artificial Fucking Intelligence.

“This time is different!” – sigh

The investor who says, “This time is different,” when in fact it’s virtually a repeat of an earlier situation, has uttered among the four most costly words in the annals of investing.

16 rules for investment success - Sir John Templeton

All of the above technologies are still chugging along in some form or other (well, OK, not Quibi). Some are vaguely useful and others are propped up by weirdo cultists. I don’t doubt that AI will be a part of the future—but it is obviously just going to be one of many technologies in use.

Literary Aside

“No enemies had ever taken Ankh-Morpork. Well technically they had, quite often; the city welcomed free‑spending barbarian invaders, but somehow the puzzled raiders found, after a few days, that they didn’t own their horses any more, and within a couple of months they were just another minority group with its own graffiti and food shops.”
— Terry Pratchett, Faust Eric

Conclusion

The ideology of “winner takes all” is unsustainable and not supported by reality.