Tim Cook Warned by CIA That China Could Move on Taiwan by 2027
Source: MacRumors
CIA briefing on Taiwan
Apple CEO Tim Cook was among a handful of top tech executives who attended a classified CIA briefing warning that China could attack Taiwan by 2027, according to an investigative report by The New York Times【$】.
The briefing was held in a secure room in Silicon Valley in July 2023, arranged at the request of then‑Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, who was frustrated with the tech industry’s reluctance to move chip production away from Taiwan.
CIA Director William Burns and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines presented the latest intelligence on China’s military plans to Cook, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, AMD CEO Lisa Su, and Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon.
Cook reportedly told officials afterward that he slept “with one eye open.”
A similar classified session was said to have been held at the White House in late 2021, but executives left skeptical because much of the intelligence had already been reported publicly. Earlier that same year, a senior U.S. military official told Congress that the armed services believed President Xi Jinping wanted his army ready to take Taiwan by 2027.
“Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, ranked the U.S. reliance on Taiwan for semiconductors as one of America’s greatest vulnerabilities. He wanted the industry to recognize the risk and support construction of U.S. manufacturing plants. Mr. Biden also wanted to provide $50 billion in government subsidies to build semiconductor plants domestically (resulting in the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022).”
Silicon Valley’s dependence on Taiwan
The investigation highlights Silicon Valley’s stubborn dependence on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which produces around 90 percent of the world’s most advanced chips, including all of Apple’s custom silicon for iPhone, iPad, and Mac.
- The NYT concluded that losing access to Taiwan’s chip supply would trigger the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, with U.S. GDP falling 11 percent.
- A Bloomberg report from January 2024 estimated that a conflict would cost the global economy more than $10 trillion.
Companies, including Apple, were initially slow to commit to buying more expensive chips from U.S. factories. Domestic chips cost more than 25 percent above those produced in Taiwan because of higher material, labor, and permitting costs, and TSMC’s Arizona plants currently run technology a generation behind what’s available on the island.
Apple’s response
- Investment pledge: Last summer, Cook visited the Oval Office and committed to investing $100 billion in the United States, with the money earmarked to support TSMC and other chip manufacturers.
- Engineering collaboration: Apple has reportedly begun holding all‑day engineering meetings with Intel to evaluate its manufacturing capabilities.
TSMC’s U.S. expansion
TSMC has now committed to roughly $165 billion in U.S. investment, including land for at least five additional plants in Phoenix, Arizona. The company’s Arizona facility recently produced Nvidia’s first U.S.-made AI chip, although those chips still need to be shipped back to Taiwan for advanced packaging.
Tags: China, New York Times, Taiwan, Tim Cook, TSMC