The US Is Flirting With Its First-Ever Population Decline

Source: Slashdot

Population Outlook

The U.S., whose population the Census Bureau did not expect to start shrinking until 2081, may record its first‑ever decline as early as this year because of the Trump administration’s accelerating immigration crackdown. Census data released in late January showed U.S. population growth slowed to just 0.5 % in the year prior to July 2025—the lowest rate since the pandemic—as net migration fell to 1.3 million from a peak of 2.7 million the year before.

Key figures

• Net migration forecast: expected to drop to 316,000 in the year prior to July 2026, indicating a trend toward negative net migration.
• AEI/Brookings joint study: projects 2026 net immigration could range from a gain of 185,000 to a loss of 925,000.
• Natural increase: births exceeded deaths by 519,000 in the most recent period; the Congressional Budget Office expects this surplus to disappear by 2030.
• Potential population loss: at the low end of the AEI/Brookings range, the overall U.S. population would shrink by more than 400,000, a change that has never occurred since the first census in 1790.