The Opening, Midgame and Endgame in Startups
Source: Sequoia Blog
The three phases
Opening
The opening phase is the “magic” of turning a few people with an idea into a startup. Silicon Valley excels at this magic, and Paul Graham is its prophet.
Key points
- Many opening strategies exist, but the lean‑startup model has proven the most repeatable.
- The ecosystem around company formation matters because foundational decisions made at this stage are hard to change later—wisdom pays dividends.
Midgame
The midgame begins once product‑market fit (PMF) has been reached. Many startups never get this far.
Key points
- PMF requires a deep understanding of a customer’s need and building a solution that satisfies it.
- After PMF, founders must build a company: hire, manage, and continuously improve the product.
- Achieving “take‑off” creates forward momentum, turning a tiny, irrelevant venture into something meaningful.
- Board members transmit inter‑generational knowledge on midgame play, but founders must filter it through their own prism to arrive at truth.
Endgame
The endgame is the infinite future—it’s never truly reached, but it shapes the present. Without a compelling vision, the present has little value (see the recent SaaSpocalypse).
Key points
- Elon Musk is the prophet of the endgame: he focuses on the hardest problems, knowing that ambitious challenges attract top talent and unleash their best work.
- A clear endgame story helps rally investors, employees, and partners around a long‑term mission.
How different startups map to the phases
| Startup type | Primary phase | Typical characteristics |
|---|---|---|
| Hot AI company from Stanford students | Opening | Easy recruitment, bike‑ride‑to‑Sand Hill capital raises |
| Vertical SaaS company | Midgame | Hard to get off the ground, early‑team recruitment is challenging; once PMF is unlocked, a clear scaling path emerges |
| Deep‑tech company | Endgame | From day one it passes the “who cares?” test; the long, fatigued midgame is preceded by a strong endgame story (hence the “valley of death”) |
Every startup faces a different set of challenges depending on which parts of the game are structurally easier or harder.
- A weak endgame story makes fundraising difficult without massive traction.
- A strong opening story can breed hubris, leading employees to believe the company has already reached the promised land.
- The valley of death is especially notorious in deep‑tech, where a compelling endgame is often preceded by a prolonged, arduous midgame.
#1 piece of advice: Be aware of these biases and explicitly combat them.
The magic of playing all three games at once
The most incredible companies and founders appear to be playing the opening, midgame, and endgame simultaneously.
- Opening vibe: Even after many years, the company feels like it’s still in “early days” with a big dream ahead (e.g., Clay, ten‑year‑old but still feels fresh).
- Midgame momentum: Within a few months they can show traction and improvement, creating forward momentum (e.g., RunwayML’s open‑source growth years before Stable Diffusion).
- Endgame inevitability: Employees genuinely feel they are moving the world forward (e.g., Anduril pioneering modern defense tech).
“No matter what happens, they are going to win.”
Examples
- Alex Wang’s journey at Scale—strength to strength.
- Crusoe’s evolution from crypto miner to AI‑factory builder.
What has crystalized for me is a superstructure that makes this possible: founders constantly hold the opening, midgame, and endgame in their minds, enabling a flexible, nimble culture that continuously reinvents itself and adapts quickly when times change.
Practical advice for founders
Don’t think of your business sequentially.
Force yourself to play all three games at once—whether you’re planning product decisions, making hires, or pitching investors.
- If you’re in the midgame, still recruit “opening‑style” talent that can pivot the business.
- If you’re in the opening, think about the endgame; that vision will inspire others to join and help turn your dream into reality.
- If you’re in the endgame, care about midgame momentum and opening creativity—those are the engines that keep the company moving forward and prevent stagnation.
By embracing this tri‑phase mindset, founders can build companies that feel perpetually early, endlessly ambitious, and relentlessly forward‑moving.
ely massive. As you build your company, each of these narratives should be getting stronger — you can’t just focus on the one that seems immediately in front of you.