Shooting-Free Days Decline in Major U.S. Cities
Source: Hacker News
Between 2015 and 2024, the total number of days without firearm shootings declined in all but one of the ten largest U.S. cities—highlighting the need to focus on building and sustaining periods of peace with zero shootings. A new study by researchers at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health and the Columbia Scientific Union for the Reduction of Gun Violence (Columbia SURGE) argues for using shooting‑free days (SFD) and related metrics alongside traditional homicide counts. These metrics capture prevention gains, the large number of people who are shot but survive, and extended stretches of peace.
The study, the first to calculate SFDs across major U.S. cities, is published in JAMA Health Forum.
“Like ‘injury‑free days’ used in workplace safety programs to recognize stretches of time without accidents, these metrics capture the number of days in a year when shooting incidents do not occur,” says study first author Charles Branas, PhD, Gelman Professor and chair of Epidemiology and founding member of SURGE. “By reframing the conversation from the absence of safety to the presence of safety, these metrics may offer a valuable approach to identify where and when interventions are effective, motivate communities, and guide policy toward sustaining longer periods without firearm violence in U.S. cities.”
Novel Metrics
The researchers introduce four new metrics:
- Shooting‑free days (SFDs)
- Shooting death‑free days (SDFDs)
- Consecutive shooting‑free days (CSFDs)
- Multiple shooting‑free days (MSFDs)
These metrics are analogous to “injury‑free days” used in occupational safety, emphasizing periods of safety rather than solely focusing on incidents.
Key Findings
-
Highest performance: San Diego consistently exhibited the highest numbers across all four metrics.
-
Lowest performance: Chicago consistently had the lowest numbers.
-
Overall ranking (excluding San Diego and Chicago):
- Phoenix
- Jacksonville
- San Antonio
- Dallas‑Fort Worth
- Houston
- New York City
- Los Angeles
- Philadelphia
-
Downward trends: All metrics showed a significant downward trend over the decade, indicating a rise in firearm violence overall, including a notable pullback during the pandemic surge.
-
City‑specific changes:
- Jacksonville was the only city to show a significant improvement in one metric over time.
- Phoenix and Dallas‑Fort Worth experienced significant declines across all four metrics, reflecting reduced progress in preventing firearm violence.
-
Population‑adjusted results: When metrics were normalized by city population:
- San Diego retained the highest mean annual SFD rate; Chicago the lowest.
- Jacksonville had the highest average annual SDFD rate; New York the lowest.
- Chicago had the lowest MSFD rate.
- San Diego again led in average annual CSFD rate; Chicago was last.
The relative success of cities like San Diego and Jacksonville suggests that identifying protective conditions could inform strategies for cities with fewer SFDs. “Instead of focusing on failures, these metrics highlight periods of success and could serve as the basis for creating meaningful goals to extend and sustain those successes,” Branas adds.
Implications
- Policy & community motivation: The metrics provide near‑real‑time evidence of intervention effectiveness at the neighborhood or city level, helping to motivate communities and guide policy.
- Goal setting: By emphasizing periods of safety, cities can set concrete, measurable goals for extending shooting‑free intervals.
Methods
The researchers used the Gun Violence Archive (GVA), a publicly available database operated by an independent nonprofit that tracks firearm‑related incidents across the U.S. The GVA compiles real‑time data on fatal, nonfatal, intentional, and unintentional shootings from more than 7,500 sources, including police reports, media outlets, government documents, and other public records. The analysis covered ten U.S. cities from January 1 2015 through December 31 2024.
Future Research
The authors note that SFDs and related metrics do not directly capture non‑shooting firearm‑related harm, broader community trauma, or long‑term economic consequences. Future studies could:
- Incorporate city‑level poverty and sociodemographic indicators.
- Apply inferential and longitudinal statistical analyses.
- Calculate monthly or weekly shooting‑free metrics, potentially at the neighborhood level.
- Compare these metrics with other public‑health and safety indicators to pinpoint effective programs and policies.
“Looking ahead, monthly or weekly shooting‑free metrics could be calculated, perhaps at the neighborhood level, and comparisons with other public health and safety metrics could be completed, to identify specific programs and policies driving successful gun violence prevention and specific areas experiencing sustained periods of nonviolence,” says senior author Sonali Rajan, EdD, professor of health studies and applied educational psychology at Teachers College and professor of epidemiology at Columbia Mailman School.
Authors
- Charles Branas, PhD – Gelman Professor & Chair, Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health (first author)
- Sonali Rajan, EdD – Professor of Health Studies & Applied Educational Psychology, Teachers College; Professor of Epidemiology, Columbia Mailman School (senior author)
- Isbah Plumber – Columbia Mailman School & Columbia SURGE
- Riley Bennett – Columbia Mailman School & Columbia SURGE
- Olivia Landes – Columbia Mailman School & Columbia SURGE
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.