Reentry of NASA satellite will exceed the agency's own risk guidelines

Source: Ars Technica

Van Allen Probes and Re‑entry Timeline

NASA’s two Van Allen Probes were launched into elliptical orbits ranging from a few hundred miles above Earth up to an apogee of nearly 20,000 miles. The orbits are inclined 10° to the equator, limiting the risk of injury or damage to a swath of the tropics. NASA ended the mission in 2019 when the satellites ran out of fuel.

At that time, engineers expected the spacecraft to re‑enter the atmosphere in 2034. However, higher‑than‑anticipated solar activity caused the atmosphere to swell outward, increasing atmospheric drag on the satellites beyond initial estimates. As a result, Van Allen Probe B is now expected to re‑enter no earlier than 2030, with a similar risk to the public.

The two spacecraft were built by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab. NASA said the mission made several major discoveries, including “the first data showing the existence of a transient third radiation belt, which can form during times of intense solar activity.”

Past NASA Satellite Re‑entries

Several NASA satellites have re‑entered the atmosphere without complying with the government’s risk standard. One example is the Rossi X‑ray Timing Explorer (RXTE), which fell out of orbit in 2018 with a 1‑in‑1,000 chance of harming someone on the ground. No one was hurt. RXTE was launched in 1995, just four months before NASA issued its first standard on orbital debris mitigation and re‑entry risk management (source).

International Re‑entry Risks

While NASA has exceeded its standards before, the United States government is not the only entity with unmitigated re‑entry risks. China launched four heavy‑lift Long March 5B rockets between 2020 and 2022 and left their massive core stages in orbit to fall back to Earth. The four abandoned rocket cores, each nearly 24 tons in mass, re‑entered the atmosphere uncontrolled. Two of them dropped wreckage on land—in the Ivory Coast and Borneo—but no injuries were reported (source).