Nobel Prize-Winning Physicist Predicts Humankind Won't Survive Another 50 Years

Source: Slashdot

Interview with Nobel Laureate David Gross

Live Science spoke with physicist David Gross, who today received the $3 million Special Breakthrough Prize in Fundamental Physics. He was part of the trio that won the 2004 Nobel Prize in Physics for research that helped complete the Standard Model of particle physics.

When asked whether physics will reach a unified theory of the fundamental forces within the next 50 years, Gross gave a surprising answer:

“Currently, I spend part of my time trying to tell people… that the chances of you living 50 [more] years are very small.”

Nuclear‑war risk assessment

Gross argues that Cold‑War estimates of a 1 % annual chance of nuclear war are too low. He suggests a more realistic figure of 2 % per year, which translates to a 1‑in‑50 chance each year.

“The expected lifetime, in the case of 2 % [per year], is about 35 years. The expected lifetime is the average time it would take to have had a nuclear war by then. It is calculated using equations similar to those used to determine the half‑life of a radioactive material.”

Suggested remedies

Gross: “We had something called the Nobel Laureate Assembly for reducing the risk of nuclear war in Chicago last year. There are steps, which are easy to take — for nations, I mean. For example, talk to each other. In the last 10 years, there are no treaties anymore. We’re entering an incredible arms race.”

He notes the current geopolitical climate:

• Three super nuclear powers are actively discussing nuclear use.
• A major war is ongoing in Europe.
• Ongoing bombings in Iran.
• India and Pakistan nearly went to war.

“I would really like to have a solid estimate — it might be more, and I think I’m being conservative — but a 2 % estimate [of nuclear war] in today’s crazy world.”

The future of nuclear weapons

Live Science: Do you think we’ll ever get to a place where we get rid of nuclear weapons?

Gross: “We’re not recommending that. That’s idealistic, but yes, I hope so. Because if you don’t, there’s always some risk an AI 100 years from now could launch nuclear weapons, but chances of humanity living, with this estimate, 100 years, is very small, and living 200 years is infinitesimal. So the answer to Fermi’s question of ‘Where are the civilizations, all the intelligent organisms around the galaxy, and why don’t they talk to us?’ is that they’ve killed themselves…”

He adds:

• There are now nine nuclear powers; even three is infinitely more complicated than two.
• International agreements and norms are eroding.
• Weapons are becoming more advanced, with automation and AI likely to control them soon.
• The speed of AI decision‑making will make human resistance difficult.

Climate change comparison

Gross points out that, unlike nuclear weapons, the threat of climate change is harder to argue about, but the principle is the same:

“We made them; we can stop them.”

Thanks to hwstar (Slashdot reader #35,834) for sharing the article.