New Study Tracks How Businesses Quietly Replaced Freelancers With AI Tools
Source: Slashdot
Study Overview
A new study [PDF] from Ramp’s economics lab has found that businesses are steadily replacing freelance workers hired through platforms like Upwork and Fiverr with AI tools from OpenAI and Anthropic, and the substitution is happening at a fraction of the cost.
The paper, authored by Ryan Stevens (Ramp’s Director of Applied Sciences), tracked firm‑level spending data from Q3 2021 to Q3 2025 across thousands of companies on Ramp’s expense management platform.
Key Findings
- The share of total business spend going to online labor marketplaces fell from 0.66 % in Q4 2021 to 0.14 % in Q3 2025.
- AI model provider spending rose from zero to 2.85 % over the same period.
- More than half of the businesses that used freelance marketplaces in Q2 2022 had stopped entirely by Q2 2025.
- Cost dynamics:
- Firms most exposed to AI (historically high freelance spend) substituted at a ratio of roughly $1 in reduced freelance spend for every $0.03 in AI spend.
- A middle‑exposure group showed a ratio of $1 to $0.30.
Methodology
The study employs a difference‑in‑differences design built around the launch of ChatGPT in October 2022, treating that event as a natural experiment to isolate the impact of AI adoption on freelance spending.
Implications
Stevens notes that micro‑level substitution does not imply aggregate job loss, as demand for workers who build and maintain AI systems could grow faster than the displacement of freelance labor.