Israeli Soldiers Accused of Using Polymarket To Bet on Strikes

Source: Slashdot

Arrests and Charges

Israel has arrested several individuals, including army reservists, for allegedly using classified information to place bets on Israeli military operations on Polymarket. Shin Bet, the country’s internal security agency, said the suspects used information obtained during their military service to inform their wagers.

One reservist and a civilian were indicted on charges of committing serious security offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice. Shin Bet did not name the arrested individuals.

Polymarket Background

Polymarket is a prediction market that allows users to bet on the outcomes of various events. Examples of wagers include:

• The size of an interest‑rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March
• The winner of League of Legends video‑game tournaments
• The number of times Elon Musk will tweet in a given week

Prior Investigations

The arrests followed Israeli media reports that Shin Bet was investigating a series of Polymarket bets from the previous year related to potential Israeli attacks on Iran. The investigation focused on bets concerning:

• The specific day or month an attack might occur
• When Israel would declare the operation over

A user known as ricosuave666 correctly predicted the timeline of a 12‑day conflict between Israel and Iran. The account earned more than $150,000 in winnings before going dormant for six months. It resumed trading last month, placing bets on when Israel would strike Iran, according to Polymarket data.