Is the golden age of Indie software over?

Source: Hacker News

The Evolution of Indie Software Development

The concept of shareware appeared in the 1980s. Developers used relatively primitive tools to create their software, then promoted it via fanzines, user groups, and bulletin boards to a niche audience of shareware fans. If you wanted to try the software, you had to obtain a floppy disk with it on. To buy a licence, you generally had to post a physical cheque to the developer. This was Indie development in hard mode. A few people made a lot of money, but most vendors earned modest returns on their efforts.

My Early Days (2005)

I started selling my first software product in 2005. It was a good time to launch as an independent software vendor:

• High‑quality compilers, IDEs, debuggers, version‑control systems, and web servers were widely available and mostly free.
• The market for software was growing as more people purchased PCs and Macs.
• Payment processors were beginning to streamline online payments.
• The real revolution was the ability to distribute software worldwide via an increasingly ubiquitous Internet.

Getting noticed was never easy, but it was generally achievable through:

• Writing SEO‑friendly content.
• Paid online ads (e.g., Google Ads pay‑per‑click).
• Download sites.
• Ads in physical magazines.

With a lot of hard work and a bit of luck, it was quite possible to make a decent living.

The Last 20 Years: Continuous Change

Things have continued evolving at a rapid pace over the 20 years I have been selling software.

• Development tools have kept improving.
• Mobile and web‑based software have become mainstream.
• App stores have appeared.
• Outsourcing became common.
• Subscription payment models are increasingly the norm.

Most of these changes haven’t affected my business dramatically—until recently, when things began to feel noticeably harder.

Current Challenges

1. The Impact of Large Language Models (LLMs)

• I don’t worry that LLMs will out‑perform my seating planner software, data‑wrangling software, or visual planning software any time soon (my main competitor remains Excel).
• However, many vendors notice their web traffic falling because people increasingly read LLM‑generated summaries rather than clicking on search‑engine links or accompanying ads.
• Even if an LLM includes a link to the original site, it often doesn’t, making SEO a less viable traffic source.

2. Squeezed Promotional Channels

• Online ads are becoming more expensive and riddled with click fraud, making a positive ROI possible only when lifetime customer value is in the hundreds of dollars.
• Google Ads, once affordable, have been “enshittified” — prices have risen dramatically, and I now get barely any clicks at a price I’m willing to pay.
• YouTube remains one of the few useful channels, but producing videos is time‑consuming, competition is huge, and generative AI threatens to flood the platform with low‑quality content.

“Typically promotional channels start off great for vendors and become less great over time (the law of shitty click‑throughs). Then new channels appear and the dance starts again.” – Andrew Chen, The Law of Shitty Click‑Throughs

Unfortunately, viable new channels for indie vendors are scarce. My experiment with advertising on Reddit did not go well (post on SuccessfulSoftware.net).

3. Lowered Barriers to Entry

LLMs also make software easier to write—a double‑edged sword. They can speed up feature development, but they also lower the barrier for competitors, even if those competitors produce buggy, “vibe‑coded” products. More competition makes it harder for any single product to get noticed.

4. Economic Headwinds

• The general cost‑of‑living crisis has reduced disposable income for most people.
• The current AI funding bubble looks poised to implode, further tightening budgets.

5. Platform‑Specific Issues

Outlook

The new wave of AI tools is creating opportunities, but they seem to favor large companies. Building a product as a thin layer on top of someone else’s platform is risky—look at the experiences of developers who built tools on top of Twitter.

It feels increasingly difficult for small software vendors like myself to make a living. This may just be the ramblings of a 50‑something‑year‑old looking back, but the trends are clear: the landscape is getting tougher, and adaptation is essential.

Through his rose‑tinted varifocals. What do you think? Has it got harder?

If you want to show indie software vendors some love, check out all the great indie software for Mac and Windows (including my own Easy Data Transform and Hyper Plan) on sale at Winterfest.