Forecasters predict below-average hurricane season, advise against complacency

Source: Ars Technica

Haiyan Jiang, a meteorologist at Florida International University, said there was a high chance of a strong El Niño that could boost water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.

“We probably won’t have as many number of storms as previous years. However, some storms get lucky,” she said. “We see outliers all the time, especially with hurricanes. So I believe Floridians, we need to get prepared.”

2026 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names

• Arthur

• Hanna

• Omar

• Bertha

• Isaias

• Paulette

• Cristobal

• Josephine

• Rene

• Dolly

• Kyle

• Sally

• Edouard

• Leah

• Teddy

• Fay

• Marco

• Vicky

• Gonzalo

• Nana

• Wilfred

Season Outlook

The National Weather Service (NWS) outlook addressed overall seasonal activity but did not include predictions for when or where hurricanes might make landfall, as those depend on short‑lived weather patterns, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA gave a 55 % chance of a below‑normal season, a 35 % chance of a near‑normal season, and a 10 % chance of an above‑normal season.

Forecasters at Colorado State University similarly predicted a below‑average season, expecting 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. They noted that waters in the western tropical Atlantic were warmer than normal, while the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic were slightly cooler. A warmer Atlantic tends to lower atmospheric pressure and create a more unstable atmosphere, which can boost hurricane activity.

Colorado State forecasters estimated the probability of a hurricane making landfall at 32 % for the entire U.S. coastline, 15 % for the U.S. East Coast (including the Florida peninsula), and 20 % for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle to Brownsville, Texas.

Alessi pointed out that although no hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. last year, Hurricane Melissa devastated Jamaica as a Category 5 storm, causing nearly $9 billion in damage and 95 fatalities across the Caribbean.

“Just because it’s a below‑average season doesn’t mean a very powerful hurricane won’t make landfall in the United States,” he said.

This article originally appeared on Inside Climate News, a nonprofit, non‑partisan news organization that covers climate, energy, and the environment.
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