Claude, Microsoft Copilot Fail Again to Predict the Winners of the Kentucky Derby
Source: Slashdot
AI Predictions for the Kentucky Derby
In 2016 an online “swarm intelligence” platform correctly predicted the Kentucky Derby by naming all four top finishers in order (its 2017 predictions were far off). Slashdot revisited how modern AI systems performed in 2023‑2025, and the results were still disappointing. The question remains: would AI‑generated Derby predictions be any better in 2026?
The 2026 winner was the 24‑to‑1 longshot Golden Tempo, while many oddsmakers had favored Further Ado, which ultimately finished 11th. When USA Today prompted Microsoft Copilot for its own picks, Copilot also chose Further Ado to win and placed Golden Tempo at 13th.
Microsoft Copilot’s Picks vs. Actual Results
| Horse (Copilot pick) | Actual Finish |
|---|---|
| Further Ado | 11th |
| Chief Wallabee | 4th |
| The Puma (SCRATCHED) | — |
| Renegade | 2nd |
| Commandment | 7th |
| So Happy | 9th |
| Emerging Market | 10th |
| Danon Bourbon | 5th |
| Potente | 12th |
| Incredibolt | 6th |
| Robusta | 14th |
| Ocelli | 3rd |
| Golden Tempo | 1st |
| Pavlovian | 18th |
| Great White (SCRATCHED) | — |
| Wonder Dean | 8th |
| Litmus Test | 17th |
| Albus | 15th |
| Six Speed | 13th |
| Intrepido | 16th |
Copilot was instructed to use the latest odds, conditions, and analysis of favorites, best bets, expert picks, previous results, race history, and post positions, according to USA Today.
Claude’s Picks vs. Actual Results
Yahoo Sports asked Claude to “simulate the race using the opening odds, draw and potential track conditions” and to factor in human predictions. Like Copilot, Claude also selected Further Ado to win (it finished 11th) and placed Golden Tempo at 12th.
| Horse (Claude pick) | Actual Finish |
|---|---|
| Further Ado | 11th |
| The Puma (SCRATCHED) | — |
| Commandment | 7th |
| Chief Wallabee | 4th |
| Renegade | 2nd |
| Emerging Market | 10th |
| So Happy | 9th |
| Incredibolt | 6th |
| Danon Bourbon | 5th |
| Potente | 12th |
| Pavlovian | 18th |
| Golden Tempo | 1st |
| Litmus Test | 17th |
| Albus | 15th |
| Wonder Dean | 8th |
| Six Speed | 13th |
| Intrepido | 16th |
Takeaway
Both Microsoft Copilot and Claude failed to identify the actual winner, instead favoring the heavily‑bet horse Further Ado. Their predictions placed the eventual champion, Golden Tempo, well outside the top positions, underscoring the current limitations of AI in accurately forecasting horse‑racing outcomes.
Full story at Slashdot.