Authorities arrest special forces soldier who allegedly made $400K on Polymarket bet involving Maduro operation

Source: TechCrunch

A special forces soldier involved in the operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has been indicted by the U.S. Justice Department. The alleged crime: making numerous bets on the prediction market Polymarket that Maduro would be removed from power, reportedly netting upwards of $400 K.

Arrest and Allegations

Authorities say Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who participated in the “planning and execution” of Operation Absolute Resolve—the stratagem that toppled and captured the Venezuelan leader—placed bets on Polymarket about whether the United States would deploy forces into Venezuela and remove Maduro from power.

Van Dyke was arrested on Thursday, according to a CBS report, citing a law‑enforcement source.

Federal officials allege that Van Dyke’s wagers were informed by classified information he accessed as a government insider. The government notes that he signed nondisclosure agreements prohibiting him from divulging, publishing, or otherwise revealing any classified or sensitive information related to the military operations he was involved with.

In December, Van Dyke created a Polymarket account and began making wagers involving “Maduro‑ and Venezuela‑related markets.” Between December 27 2025 and January 26 2026, he allegedly placed 13 bets totaling about $33,034 on outcomes such as “U.S. Forces in Venezuela … by January 31 2026” and “Maduro out … by January 31 2026.” After collecting his winnings, officials say Van Dyke took steps to conceal his ties to the account.

Charges

Van Dyke faces several charges, including:

• Violating the Commodity Exchange Act
• Wire fraud
• Making an unlawful monetary transaction

Statement from Acting Attorney General

“Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain,” said Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. “Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply.”

Prediction Markets Context

Prediction markets have sparked controversy since their launch. Over the past year, they have grown in prominence, striking deals with media outlets and sports organizations while seeing widespread use, including by public officials. Legislation is currently being mulled that would ban public officials from using nonpublic information to make bets on prediction sites.