Apple could sell 4-5M MacBook Neo machines this year, says TrendForce

Source: 9to5Mac

TrendForce forecast for MacBook Neo

TrendForce estimates that Apple will sell four to five million MacBook Neo units in 2026. The market‑intelligence firm notes that Apple is moving in the opposite direction of most competitors, which are scaling back lower‑cost models due to sharply higher RAM prices.

The firm projects a 9.2 % year‑over‑year decline in global notebook shipments for 2026, with the possibility of an even deeper contraction if demand stays weak. Despite shortages and price hikes in memory and CPUs that are prompting many notebook brands to streamline product lines, Apple is introducing an entry‑level notebook—the MacBook Neo.

Apple’s overall notebook shipments are forecast to grow 7.7 % YoY in 2026, pushing macOS market share to 13.2 %. The Neo alone could account for 4–5 million units, depending on consumer acceptance of its 8 GB memory configuration.

Market conditions and Apple’s strategy

Dramatically increased RAM prices have forced PC makers to prioritize higher‑margin models, limiting their ability to produce affordable machines. TrendForce highlights that Apple is bucking this trend by launching a low‑priced MacBook.

The Neo’s $500–$600 price point could reshape the pricing structure and competitive landscape of the global notebook market. When consumers can purchase a MacBook at this price, Windows‑based manufacturers will face significant pressure.

Potential impact on the notebook market

By entering the entry‑level segment, Apple can fill a key pricing gap and build brand loyalty among students and early‑career professionals. This aligns with earlier speculation that the Neo would act as a “gateway drug” to the Mac ecosystem—a view now supported by TrendForce.

Photo: Apple