An accountant won a big jackpot on Kalshi by betting against DOGE

Source: TechCrunch

Image Credits: Francis Chung/Politico/Bloomberg / Getty Images

Story Overview

Background

When Alan Cole saw Elon Musk fans eagerly bidding up a contract on the prediction market Kalshi that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could effectively reduce federal spending in a year, he decided to take the opposite side of the bet. The story was reported in the Wall Street Journal.

Cole, an international tax accountant, believed that federal spending could not be quickly reduced. He argued that even if DOGE eliminated some federal contracts and laid off workers, the remaining obligations and the growing federal debt would keep overall spending high.

The Bet

Cole wagered his entire life savings—over $342,000—on the counter bet that the U.S. federal budget would not “insta‑shrink.” He gradually accumulated a 3% stake in a Kalshi prediction market that had grown to $12 million, making a few hedging bets along the way.

Outcome

On February 20, the government released the 2025 year‑end spending report, which showed increases compared to 2024. The report is available from the Treasury’s fiscal data portal: Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and the Deficit/Surplus of the U.S. Government.

Following the release, Cole walked away with $470,300, netting a profit of $128,000.