Source: Hacker News

America Has a Tungsten Problem

The US will need a lot more tungsten in the future. Where will it come from?

The United States needs a better plan for tungsten. For many years, the US has relied on Chinese tungsten production, but that position is increasingly tenuous. Conservative growth projections in defense and semiconductors suggest an escalation in tungsten demand. If fusion technologies materialize, the United States will simply not have sufficient tungsten.

About Tungsten

Tungsten is a metal with a unique mix of properties:

• Melts at a higher temperature than any other metal.
• Very hard, extremely dense, and broadly inert.
• Unlike other refractory metals, it conducts electricity and heat fairly well.

Major Applications

• Cutting and drilling tools – Tungsten carbide’s extreme hardness and high‑heat tolerance make it ideal for drill bits. This is the primary application today, accounting for roughly 60 % of total consumption.
• Munitions – High density and chemical inertness make tungsten useful in armor‑piercing rounds and certain dense inert metal explosives. It is often an alternative to depleted uranium.
• Semiconductors – Its high melting point, inertness, adequate conductivity, and fluoride chemistry allow tungsten to fill nanoscale connection gaps via chemical vapor deposition.
• Photovoltaic cells – Manufacturers are replacing carbon‑steel wire with tungsten wire for cutting silicon wafers, enabling thinner wires and less silicon waste.

Emerging Application: Fusion

Tungsten is an essential input for nuclear‑fusion reactors. It resists heat and erosion from neutron bombardment, making it a leading candidate for plasma‑facing components and radiation shielding. ITER provides several articles on why they use tungsten, including this one on the extreme heat conditions parts must endure.

Tungsten is a “weird and mostly forgotten” element—overshadowed by rare‑earth metals—but it is crucial for major industrial technologies.

Tungsten Demand

In steady state, the United States imports about 10 000 t of tungsten each year. A back‑of‑the‑envelope estimate suggests the country could need 15 000 t + annually under moderate assumptions. If fusion becomes viable, the U.S. would need to match Chinese output.

Conventional Applications

A simple model can illustrate possible growth:

Using these assumptions, demand could nearly double in ten years (+77 %). The exact numbers are uncertain, but the qualitative conclusion is clear:

Demand for tungsten in the United States is rising under relatively conservative assumptions.

Modeled CAGR by Application

Blue cells indicate input assumptions; the “TOTAL” column shows the indexed demand (2025 = 100 %).

What If Fusion Takes Off?

The model above excluded fusion. If commercial fusion reactors appear, tungsten demand could surge dramatically. Several credible players are actively advancing fusion:

• DeepMind partnered with CFS – DeepMind blog
• Microsoft signed a power‑purchase agreement with Helion Energy – Helion announcement
• Helical Fusion secured a PPA with a major Japanese supermarket – Business Wire release

These developments suggest genuine optimism that fusion could become a reality within the next decade, which would dramatically increase tungsten requirements.

Takeaway

• The United States currently imports ≈ 10 kt of tungsten per year.
• Even with conservative growth assumptions, demand is projected to exceed 15 kt + annually within the next decade.
• If fusion energy becomes a reality, demand could surge far beyond that, potentially requiring the U.S. to match or surpass Chinese production.

A strategic, domestic tungsten supply chain is therefore essential for national security, advanced manufacturing, and future energy technologies.

Fusion Reactor Tungsten Consumption

The amount of tungsten a fusion reactor would require is not well‑known; the literature is sparse. One recent study¹ estimates that a typical reactor could consume 5 000–30 000 t of tungsten over a 40‑year operating life.
For a back‑of‑the‑envelope calculation we can adopt a midpoint:

[ \text{Tungsten per reactor} \approx \frac{10,000\ \text{t}}{40\ \text{yr}} = 250\ \text{t yr}^{-1} ]

How many reactors?

There is no reliable forecast for the number of commercial fusion plants, so we use the current fleet of U.S. fission reactors as a rough proxy.

Assuming the United States could eventually host ≈200 fusion reactors, the annual tungsten demand from those plants would be:

[ \begin{aligned} \text{Tungsten demand} &= 200\ \text{reactors} \times 250\ \text{t yr}^{-1} \ &= 50,000\ \text{t yr}^{-1} \end{aligned} ]

Adding a “hazy baseline” of existing tungsten consumption (≈10 000–20 000 t yr⁻¹) yields a rough national estimate of:

[ \boxed{60,000\text{–}70,000\ \text{t yr}^{-1}} ]

References

Tungsten Supply

Global Production

• China dominates: > 80 % of the world’s ~80 000 t annual production.
• The next‑largest producers are typically Vietnam, Russia, and North Korea – none of which are major suppliers.

Figure: Global tungsten production by year (metric tons)
Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries.

The United States has not produced any tungsten since 2015.

U.S. Imports

• Historically, the United States has imported ≈10 000 t yr⁻¹ of tungsten, almost entirely from China.
• Recent Chinese export controls (tight licensing, effectively a ban) have turned this reliance into a strategic vulnerability.

Figure: U.S. tungsten imports for consumption by year (metric tons)
Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries.

Why Supply Can’t Appear Overnight

• Mining projects require years and hundreds of millions of dollars to reach full productivity.
• They must secure speculative capital, navigate a complex regulatory environment, recruit specialized labor, and—luckily—hit the right ore body.
• The mining sector cycles between boom and bust, making private‑capital financing unreliable.

Current Efforts

• The U.S. Department of Defense has awarded contracts to American and Canadian firms developing tungsten mines.
• The Trump administration promoted an American‑Kazakh tungsten deal – Reuters report.

These steps are a start but likely insufficient given the scale of the problem. Market prices have already hit all‑time highs (Reuters, Jan 2026), and demand is expected to rise further.

Wrapping Up

The United States currently lacks a secure, viable tungsten supply for the medium‑term, threatening its semiconductor and munitions industries.

If commercial fusion becomes a reality in the 2030s (as many bullish forecasts suggest), tungsten demand could outstrip supply dramatically, driving prices even higher.

The obvious solution: increase tungsten mining—both domestically and abroad. Tungsten is abundant; the challenge is extracting it economically and reliably.

Key Questions

1. Why does China produce > 80 % of the world’s tungsten?
2. Why has there been zero domestic tungsten mining in the United States since 2015?
3. What needs to change for domestic tungsten mining to return?
4. What will it take to ensure tungsten supplies survive the next boom‑and‑bust mining investment cycles?